The USA TODAY Sports way-too-early Top 25 for the 2024 season debuted last January, released during a pivotal moment in college football history. The timing coincided with Michigan’s triumphant national championship victory over Washington and Nick Saban’s shocking retirement from Alabama. These monumental events set the stage for a season of intense competition, upsets, and surprises.
As is tradition, the way-too-early rankings aimed to predict the top contenders and rising teams for the upcoming season. Some predictions aged well, while others proved to be overly optimistic or outright misguided. Our top rankings reflected the perceived stability of powerhouse programs and the potential of emerging teams. However, as the season unfolded, injuries, coaching changes, and unanticipated performances reshaped the college football landscape in ways we couldn’t have foreseen.
Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of last year’s predictions, including the hits, the close calls, and the outright misses:
Spot On!
No. 4 Texas (13-3) The Longhorns delivered a season that matched their lofty preseason expectations. Texas secured second place in the SEC and reached the national semifinals for the second consecutive year. Although they fell to Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, their consistency throughout the season, coupled with standout performances from their offensive line and quarterback, solidified their ranking. An easier schedule helped their case, but Texas proved they belonged among the elite.
No. 11 Clemson (10-4) Clemson claimed the ACC championship as predicted, though their dominance was less pronounced than in past seasons. The Tigers endured tough losses to Georgia and Louisville but rebounded to seize the conference title after Miami’s late-season collapse. While not a playoff team, Clemson’s performance justified their Top 15 placement.
No. 23 Memphis (11-2) Memphis exceeded expectations for a Group of Five team, showcasing resilience and discipline throughout the season. Though Boise State emerged as the top Group of Five program, Memphis’ late-season victories over Tulane and West Virginia highlighted their capability. The Tigers finished strong, validating their inclusion in our preseason rankings.
Not Bad Overall
No. 1 Georgia (11-3) Georgia fell short of capturing another national championship but remained a dominant force in college football. The Bulldogs claimed the SEC title and maintained their reputation as a powerhouse. An injury to quarterback Carson Beck during the conference championship likely cost them a deeper playoff run, but their consistency kept them near the top of the rankings.
No. 6 Notre Dame (14-1)* Notre Dame exceeded expectations, fueled by stellar performances from quarterback Riley Leonard and offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock. Despite an early loss to Northern Illinois, the Fighting Irish found their rhythm and now stand one win away from their first national championship since 1988. Their run has been a testament to the team’s resilience and adaptability.
No. 7 Oregon (13-1) Oregon’s success in the Big Ten highlighted their strength and adaptability in a news conference. The Ducks dominated the regular season but stumbled in the postseason. Their ranking accurately reflected their potential, although we underestimated the overall dominance of the Big Ten this year.
No. 12 Tennessee (10-3) The Volunteers continued their upward trajectory by securing a playoff spot. Their victory over Alabama in a thrilling game underscored their competitiveness. Though they fell to Ohio State in the postseason, Tennessee’s season marked significant progress for the program.
No. 14 Missouri (10-3) Missouri delivered a solid season, achieving double-digit wins and demonstrating consistency against conference opponents. While they lacked marquee victories, their narrow win over Iowa in the Music City Bowl was a highlight. Missouri’s steady performance earned them a spot in the Top 15.
Close, But Off
No. 5 Mississippi (10-3) Mississippi’s talent was undeniable, but their season fell short of playoff contention. Losses to Kentucky and Florida derailed their momentum, leaving them outside the national title conversation. Still, their overall performance validated their high preseason ranking.
No. 9 Ohio State (14-2)* The Buckeyes exceeded expectations, surging through the postseason and now standing on the brink of a national championship. While we ranked them within the Top 10, their resilience and playoff success highlighted their true potential.
No. 15 Penn State (13-3) Penn State’s strong season resulted in an at-large playoff bid. Despite concerns about their offensive line and quarterback situation, the Nittany Lions overperformed, cementing their status as one of the Big Ten’s top programs.
No. 24 Iowa (8-5) Iowa’s season had its ups and downs, with the team falling just short of staying in the Top 25. Close losses to Iowa State and UCLA dampened their overall record, but their competitiveness remained evident.
We Have Reasons
No. 2 Alabama (9-4) The Crimson Tide faced significant challenges in their first season under new head coach Kalen DeBoer. Uncharacteristic losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma highlighted the growing pains of transitioning from the Nick Saban era. While still a strong program, Alabama’s struggles reflected the difficulty of maintaining dominance.
No. 3 Michigan (8-5) Michigan’s season unraveled after Jim Harbaugh and quarterback J.J. McCarthy departed for the NFL. Despite these setbacks, the Wolverines closed the season on a high note with victories over Ohio State and Alabama. However, their overall performance fell short of preseason expectations.
No. 17 Washington (6-7) Washington’s post-Michigan exodus of talent, combined with the departure of head coach Kalen DeBoer, left the team struggling to maintain its success. The Huskies’ underwhelming season was a stark contrast to their championship appearance in 2023.
No. 22 Kansas (5-7) Kansas showed flashes of potential, including three wins against ranked opponents, but their inconsistency prevented them from making a significant impact. Their talent was evident, but execution was lacking.
What Were We Thinking?
No. 8 Oklahoma (6-7) Oklahoma’s offense struggled to find its footing, resulting in a disappointing season. While they extended their bowl streak, the Sooners’ inability to capitalize on key moments led to a subpar record.
No. 10 LSU (9-4) LSU’s season began with a loss to USC and spiraled further with midseason defeats to Texas A&M, Alabama, and Florida. Despite their struggles, the Tigers’ talent ensured they remained competitive in most games.
No. 16 Utah (5-7) Utah’s season unraveled after quarterback Cam Rising’s prolonged absence due to injury. The Utes lost seven consecutive games, dashing their hopes of a successful season.
No. 19 Southern California (7-6) USC’s first season as Big Ten newcomers was fraught with challenges. Losses to conference rivals and inconsistent performances left them on the fringes of bowl eligibility.
No. 21 N.C. State (6-7) Injuries and narrow losses defined a frustrating season for the Wolfpack. Despite their efforts, they failed to live up to preseason expectations.
No. 25 Virginia Tech (6-7) Virginia Tech remained competitive in most of their games but couldn’t secure the key wins needed to contend in the ACC. Their season lacked the consistency required to stay in the Top 25.
Major Misses
No. 13 Arizona (4-8) A coaching change and the departure of key players derailed Arizona’s season. The Wildcats struggled to find cohesion, resulting in a disappointing record.
No. 20 Oklahoma State (3-9) Oklahoma State’s midseason collapse was one of the most surprising storylines of the year. Head coach Mike Gundy faced significant scrutiny as the team’s Top 25 aspirations quickly evaporated.
No. 18 Florida State (2-10) Florida State’s catastrophic season will go down as one of the biggest disappointments in college football history. The Seminoles were plagued by poor performances, injuries, and coaching turmoil.
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